According to Dr. Matthew Levitt, from The Washington Institute on Near East Policy, retaliation is almost certain.
ADVERTISEMENTAs fears of a wider war grow in the middle east, questions are being asked about the rising tensions after last week’s assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut.
Many fear Iran and its regional allies could launch a similar attack following the killings. Both attacks were widely blamed on Israel, which has acknowledged killing the Hezbollah commander.
Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas have vowed to avenge the killings. Since then, the US has braced for retaliatory strikes against Israel.
President Joe Biden was asked Saturday night in Wilmington, Delaware whether he thought Iran would stand down. He responded: “I hope so. I don’t know.”
According to Dr. Matthew Levitt, from The Washington Institute on Near East Policy, retaliation is almost certain.
"Anybody who tells you they know exactly what the response is going to look like is lying to you. But there will be a response. There's no question about that” said Dr. Levitt.
The policy expert also believes that war could make a bad situation worse for Lebanon.
“For Hezbollah, the economic crisis, even more than the political crisis, has created a situation in Lebanon where almost nobody wants a full-fledged war that would bring down the kind of destruction on Lebanon that would make life there even worse than it is right now" says Dr. Matthew Levitt.
With the rising tensions, some European countries including France, Sweden, and the UK, have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.
Dr. Levitt does not think Hezbollah will gain public support for any increased action against Israel.
"Hezbollah understands, that unlike the war in 2006, this time around, many Lebanese would probably blame Hezbollah for starting a war that nobody in Lebanon, or for that matter, Israel wanted”.
He however warns that a full-fledged war could end near Iran's borders.
“They do not want full-fledged war coming to the borders of Iran, again not only because they understand that Israel has some real capabilities, it has real allies in the United States and others, but they are worried something like that could spark dissent from within and make people think, wait a minute, maybe this regime can be toppled"
In April, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, which said it intercepted 99%. The barrage came less than two weeks after a suspected Israeli strike in Syria killed two Iranian generals, and it marked the first time Iran had launched a direct military assault on Israel despite decades of enmity dating back to the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Iran does not recognize Israel and supports anti-Israeli militant groups including Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
ADVERTISEMENTSeveral analysts have said the prospects for a ceasefire deal to end Israel's war on Gaza could be badly impacted by the latest events.