Ursula von der Leyen's re-election has made Giorgia Meloni show her true colours, betraying the pragmatic image she has tried to sell abroad.
ADVERTISEMENTAfter almost two years of building up her credentials as a pragmatic stateswoman willing to work with – and within – the European mainstream to achieve positive results for her indebted nation, Giorgia Meloni has suddenly hit the brakes, made a turn and gone back to where she originally came: the Eurosceptic trenches.
It's a return to form for the Italian premier, whose no-holds-barred campaign famously featured a string of invectives against the "bureaucrats in Brussels."
On Thursday, she honoured that pledge and ordered the 24 MEPs of her Fratelli d'Italia party (Brothers of Italy, or FdI) to vote against the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission.
With that decision, taken by the premier herself, Meloni unambiguously sides with the far-right factions of the European Parliament, who thoroughly detest the Commission chief and her policies.
For them, von der Leyen's Green Deal is tantamount to "ecological ideology." Her reform of migration and asylum rules equals "unprotected borders." Her focus on the rule of law is an attack on "national sovereignty." Her proposals to strengthen the political union are another stepping stone towards a "federalist superstate."
They are all catchy phrases to galvanise the electorate, spice up manifestos and earn extra votes. They are especially helpful in sustaining a relentless opposition, as they grant automatic justification for every negative vote.
By voting against von der Leyen, Meloni does precisely that: she places her MEPs firmly outside the ruling majority for the next five years and pairs them up with the likes of France's National Rally, Spain's Vox and Austria's Freedom Party.
In some cases, this was the case already in the past legislature: Meloni's lawmakers came strongly against environmental and social regulations, in line with the far right. However, on other issues, the Italian leader ditched the radicals and moved to the centre.
On Ukraine, Meloni has positioned herself as a staunch supporter of the war-torn nation, backing financial and military assistance, as well as sanctions against the Kremlin – the opposite stance of her sometimes ally, Hungary's Viktor Orbán.
Earlier this year, the premier travelled to Kyiv to underscore her support on the war's second anniversary. During that visit, she was joined by Canada's Justin Trudeau, Belgium's Alexander De Croo and, notably, Ursula von der Leyen. The images played to her advantage as it coincided with the start of Italy's G7 presidency.
On migration, Meloni has too broken ranks: her endorsement was fundamental to unblock the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, von der Leyen's ambitious overhaul to guarantee that all member states, regardless of their economic size and geographic location, contribute to managing the arrival of asylum seekers.
The Pact's core tenet – "mandatory solidarity" – was essential for Italy, a frontline nation that receives the bulk of irregular arrivals through the Mediterranean route. Remarkably, the system of "mandatory solidarity" outraged Meloni's peers in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, who moved forcefully against the Pact.
Meloni did not. Her three-party government voted in favour of the five regulations that make up the all-encompassing reform, together with five other complementary laws.
Having Meloni on board has also helped legitimise the controversial deals with neighbouring countries that Brussels has promoted to curb irregular migration. Meloni has, in fact, taken credit for these EU-funded agreements and was pictured smiling and holding hands with von der Leyen on her trips to Tunisia and Egypt.
These moves, together with her attitude at EU summits, which diplomats have described as "constructive," gradually created the impression of a pragmatic leader who had been moderated by the sheer force of being in power. "Giorgia Meloni Solidifies Her Credentials in Europe," wrote the New York Times in February, after the premier reportedly convinced Orbán to lift his veto on a €50-billion package for Ukraine.
ADVERTISEMENTA poisoned overture
By the time the EU elections arrived, von der Leyen thought Meloni was on her side and made increasingly explicit overtures to secure her votes. Progressives cried foul and warned they would pull out if the president brought Meloni into the coalition.
It was a dangerous tightrope that von der Leyen dared to walk in search of a second mandate. The incumbent admitted differences with Meloni but insisted the premier met the basic three criteria: being "pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law." During her campaign, von der Leyen repeated the lines over and over, as if she were trying to convince herself rather than her audience.
The cracks began showing when leaders met in late June to assign the bloc's top jobs. The three centrist parties excluded Meloni from the deal-making process, triggering a furious reaction from the Italian, who denounced the whole thing as "undemocratic" and "surreal." She then voted against the nominations of Kaja Kallas and António Costa but abstained on von der Leyen, a strategy that prolonged the suspense.
The incumbent was unfazed: in the days leading up to her confirmation hearing, von der Leyen met with the Socialists, the Liberals and the Greens to secure as many endorsements as possible. She also met with the ECR group, despite having promised "no structured cooperation" with the hard right.
ADVERTISEMENTThe intrigue lasted until the very end, when von der Leyen faced the Parliament in Strasbourg for a make-or-vote vote that would either cement her standing as Europe's most powerful woman or put a sudden end to her career.
"The last five years have shown what we can do together," she told MEPs. "Let us do it again. Let us make the choice of strength. Let us make the choice of leadership."
Ultimately, she received 401 votes in favour and 284 against, a larger-than-expected majority. Meloni's party waited until the result was announced and the hemicycle was empty to face the press and confirm it had joined the opposition.
"We did this despite having appreciated in recent months the collaborative spirit that has characterised the relationship between von der Leyen and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni," said Carlo Fidanza, who leads Fratelli d'Italia in the Parliament.
ADVERTISEMENT"Nonetheless, the choices that have been made in recent days, the political platform, and the search for a consensus on the left extended to the greens, does not make it possible to support her reconfirmation," he told reporters.
Nicola Procaccini, a close Meloni ally and co-chair of the ECR group, added: "We remain what we are: moderate in tone but firm in principles. For us, to vote for von der Leyen would have been like voting against some of our principles."
Progressives breathed a sigh of relief, having dreaded the prospect of Meloni being part of the coalition. "Today, Europe wins. The pro-European political forces really had a big challenge, a big responsibility, to work together here for this result," Iratxe García, the leader of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), told Euronews.
In a press conference, von der Leyen was asked if she regretted her overtures to Meloni. The newly re-elected president gave a cryptic answer.
ADVERTISEMENT"We've been working very hard throughout the election campaign (to) bundle the democratic forces and to have a majority at the centre for a strong Europe," she said.
To "all those who are pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law, we offered to work together and the result today speaks for itself. It was the right approach."
Does that mean that, in her view, Meloni no longer passes the test? It's unclear.
Meloni's fury over the top jobs deal and her refusal to endorse von der Leyen change the political game in Brussels and are set to reverberate for months, perhaps even years. Her reputation as a constructive voice that can be reasoned with is badly damaged and sends her back to the stubborn Europscepticsm that defined her rise to power.
ADVERTISEMENTThe extent of this re-alignment will be known when von der Leyen announces the structure of her new College of Commissioners after the summer break. Behind the scenes, Meloni is pushing for a high-profile portfolio but the president might decide to pay her back with a lower-ranking assignment. Alternatively, von der Leyen could offer her something hefty and then let the Parliament obliterate her nominee.
"Only naive Europeans (plenty of them around) believed she had been domesticated and Europeanised. The leopard doesn't change its spots," says Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), noting Meloni's support for migration reform was in her interest and her backing of Ukraine depends on who occupies the White House.
"Meloni will keep on trying to pretend she's part of the game, she's not Orbán and all the rest of it. The real question is whether her interlocutors have now seen the light or whether they will continue to be fooled."