With less than four months until the US presidential election, the government in Berlin is preparing for the possibility of a Trump victory. How could his return impact Germany and the EU?
ADVERTISEMENTWhile Donald Trump's election in 2016 surprised much of the world, this time, Europe — and Germany in particular — is already preparing for the possibility of a major shift in policy in Washington this November.
"Ultimately, it is a difficult situation to remain partners with such a difficult administration as under Trump. Germany has shown that it can somehow work, as it did last time when Trump was president," political scientist Dr Antonios Souris told Euronews.
"Although we must say the new administration is not yet in power, it is still a delicate situation," he added.
The world was a different place in 2016 when Trump was last elected — former Chancellor Angela Merkel was still in power, the pandemic had not choked the globe, and Russia had not yet launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
If Trump is to be re-elected, he would have to deal with the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz — albeit possibly for less than a year since German voters are expected to elect a new chancellor and parliament in October 2025. Recent polls show the opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) firmly ahead.
What is Berlin doing?
The government is already boosting defence capabilities and working with partners to ensure that Europe remains a major world economic power regardless of who wins in the US in November, regional director of the German Marshall Fund Sudha David-Wilp told Euronews.
"Germany and its allies are making preparations for either scenario," she said.
Transatlantic co-ordinator and FDP deputy parliamentary group leader Michael Link travelled to the US Republican Party convention in Milwaukee last week, where JD Vance was introduced as Trump's running mate. Link told Euronews that he has been preparing extensively for all scenarios for a long time.
"This includes, with regard to a possible second presidency of Trump, strengthening contacts with the US Republicans to identify where, despite all differences, there are also important shared interests," he said.
"I have been working on this for over two years. It also naturally includes consistently expanding contacts with promising individuals on the side of the US Democrats for the future."
Experts are concerned after Trump said he would withdraw protection and encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to NATO member countries that didn't reach their 2% GDP spending targets back in February.
On the subject of NATO, Link said, "the 2% goal remains Germany's central and crucial signal to the US, regardless of who is in the White House. This is in Germany's vital interest, and the federal government has already established this with the mid-term financial planning of the federal budget until 2028."
But Link wasn't the only one who attended the Milwaukee convention. Opposition politicians from the CDU and former health minister Jens Spahn also appeared.
Souris says, "Spahn is a central figure within the CDU, an ambitious politician with leadership responsibilities who is well-known, even abroad."
What are Germany and the EU expecting?
If Trump wins, the general sense is that he might turn his attention to protecting US interests from Beijing, not Moscow.
ADVERTISEMENTThe German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) researcher Laura von Daniels told Euronews that JD Vance hinted at this at February's Munich Security Conference.
"The ammunition suppliers in the US are simply not sufficient to support Ukraine any longer. These supplies are needed to protect the US against potential threats from the Pacific, from the Indo-Pacific, of China, essentially," von Daniels recalled.
Research Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Filip Medunic also thinks transatlantic relations could influence US policy on China.
"Trump has already shown in his first term, and again now, that security policy is no longer taken for granted, as it used to be, for Europe and for Germany as a close ally of the US. It has been made clear that he is ready to demand costs that must be borne by the allies," he added.
ADVERTISEMENTVon Daniels says that Germany and Europe need to increase spending on defence and military regardless of whether the next US government is Democratic or Republican.
"I think there's a sense that with Democrats it's more of a gradual process, whereas with Trump from day one, it would be aggression attacks."
She also warns that Trump could pick on Germany, as he did during his last term, "because everyone, at least in Germany, I think in the foreign policy community, is quite sure that this that he has a problem with Germany in general," von Daniels adds.
However, experts warn that the next few years in Europe could get more expensive, not just due to increased military spending but also because of Trump's approach to transatlantic trade.
ADVERTISEMENT"I think Europe is in a harder spot because it not only will face with higher tariffs on the part of a Trump to administration, higher tariffs with the United States, but will also face a flood of Chinese goods if the US is to continue on a protectionist or even draconian trade policy under a Trump administration," David-Wilp said.
Von Daniels also speculated that Trump could return to office "and from day one tell us that we the he still has a trade deficit with Europe and therefore we need to stop exporting German luxury cars. And then there would be tariffs."
But will it be enough?
Although the German government has been preparing well behind the scenes for a potential second Trump term, his unpredictability is still of concern.
Trump is known for making quick, rash decisions and deals his way, which could potentially change history not just for Ukraine and China but also for the Middle East.
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Medunic says that last time, Trump mixed security policy, economic policy, and foreign policies and is likely to do it again, despite them traditionally being kept separate.
"Trump will try to solve many problems his way, with a deal, meaning he will quickly demand negotiations," he said.
He also says there is a danger "that Germany and also Europe will be side-lined."
"The biggest worry is really that Trump's serious about making a deal with Putin," without Germany, the EU or even Ukraine having a seat at the table," Von Daniels said.
ADVERTISEMENT"And then they they discuss the fate of Ukraine essentially without Ukraine having a say either and then [Germany] would be in this very isolated position where the US and Russia are discussing stuff that has immediate consequences for our own security."
In addition, with Germany's federal elections just over a year away, both far right and far left parties are capitalising on anti-war rhetoric.
"For example, we now have three state elections in eastern Germany where support for Ukraine is not as high as in western German states. The AfD (Alternative for Germany) is also stirring up sentiment with certain rhetoric, and the Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht is advocating an anti-war stance and opposing further expenditures while promoting diplomacy with Russia," Souris said.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. Experts say that Germany has already navigated a Trump presidency for four years and has learned lessons from last time.
ADVERTISEMENTUrsula Von der Leyen, who recently secured a second term as European Commission president, is regarded by Von Daniels as "professional and experienced enough to know that she needs a working relationship" with the US.