Macron’s visit to Belgrade takes place less than five months after he hosted his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vučić, in Paris. This trip will be an opportunity for the two heads of state to discuss economic issues, defence, energy, and artificial intelligence.
ADVERTISEMENTAfter having declared that Serbia's future lies "within the European Union ... and nowhere else” back in April, French President Emmanuel Macron continues his charm offensive in the Western Balkans.
The head of state is set to travel for an official visit to Belgrade on 29 and 30 August, according to the Elysée Palace.
One of the most burning topics will be the sale of 12 French-manufactured Rafale fighter jets worth €3 billion.
Belgrade has been ramping up its arms spending this year and “France has become a favourite destination for the Serbian rearmament effort,” said Dr Sophie Gueudet, a researcher specialised in Western Balkans at the Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna within the Horizon RE-ENGAGE project in Italy.
It’s an attempt by Macron to solidify bilateral relations by trying to divert Serbia from its Russian dependency on defence and security systems.
“Bringing back Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia, closer to the EU sphere could be seen as a smart diplomatic move by Macron,” Dr Gueudet told Euronews.
A false illusion, most experts believe. “Serbia has been cultivating good ties with Russia and China these past few years too,” explained Florian Bieber, a professor of Southeast European History and Politics at the University of Graz.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Belgrade in May as part of his first visit to Europe since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Beijing has poured billions into Serbia, particularly into mining and manufacturing.
As for Russia, Serbia remains its closest ally in the Western Balkans due to their robust energy cooperation, opposition to Kosovo’s independence, and shared Eastern Orthodox religion.
“Every time, there are these partnerships with the EU, Belgrade manages to also balance its relationship with China and Russia. Serbia will never put all of its eggs in one basket,” said Strahinja Subotić, a senior researcher at the European Policy Center in Belgrade.
“As long as Serbia remains energy and Kosovo-dependent on Russia, the Kremlin will always have leverage,” said Subotić to Euronews.
The thorny subject of Serbia’s accession to the EU
Another major issue in the works will be Serbia’s accession to the EU, which relies heavily on the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
Belgrade doesn’t recognise the sovereignty of Pristina, which declared independence in 2008. Numerous Brussels-led attempts at appeasement and dialogue have failed in recent years.
“Due to the tense geopolitical context and no system of checks and balances with what Serbia is going to do with these increased defence capabilities, I am sceptical that it's a wise decision for France to even sell arms to Serbia,” said Dr Gueudet.
Macron has appeared to side with Serbia on the conflict. In early August, France condemned "the multiplication of unilateral actions by the Kosovar authorities", which "jeopardise the normalisation efforts.”
ADVERTISEMENT"France has finally, after a long time of slowing down and refusing to talk about EU enlargement, become interested in the matter. We expect France to help on the opening of new clusters in the negotiations on Serbia's membership in the EU," said Tanja Miščević, Serbian Minister of European Affairs in a televised interview with Euronews Serbia.
But analysts remain sceptical of Vučić’s political will to actually move forward with EU integration.
“These attempts are more trying to bring Serbia closer to the EU through economic elements rather values of EU integration,” said Florian Bieber.
“Officially, Serbia is committed to its accession to the EU but there has been no substantial progress these past few years,” he explained.
ADVERTISEMENTWhile Belgrade has made some progress in the judiciary, limited progress was made in the rule of law, the fight against corruption, organised crime, and freedom of expression, according to the annual progress report on Serbia released by the European Commission in 2023.
“Vučić’s would love to be part of the EU, but only if he can act like Hungary’s Viktor Orban,” quipped Subotić.
The European Parliament has accused EU member-state Hungary of increasingly backsliding on the rule of law, corruption and LGBTQ+ rights these past few years.
By adhering to these democratic principles needed to join the EU, experts believe Vučić’s government — often accused of repressing political opponents and muzzling independent media outlets — could have much to lose.
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