Former Estonian president tells Euronews Ratcliffe’s Moscow talks were more likely about Iran than a warning against aggression in the Baltics. He says Russia’s calculus in the region has not changed.
Former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves, an influential voice in the European security debate, told Euronews he is sceptical that the US dispatched CIA Director John Ratcliffe to warn Russia against escalation, arguing that Washington remains more concerned about Iran.
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In an exclusive interview with Euronews, Ilves said he had “severe doubts” that concerns over the Baltic states were the reason for Ratcliffe’s visit, despite a flurry of reports suggesting Washington wanted to send Moscow a message against any form of aggression.
“What is the real problem for the United States right now? The real problem is Iran, the fact that the Russians are giving targeting information to the Iranians,” he said.
“Those are real problems for the United States, and that would be sufficient to warrant the director of the CIA to go to Moscow to tell them to back off.”
US media reported that the CIA director was sent to warn Moscow against attacking NATO members, amid concerns that Russia could seek to test the alliance, potentially by targeting Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania.
Ilves questioned that explanation, saying there had been “no change in the US’s threat assessment for the Baltic states”.
“If the purpose was to go and genuinely tell the Russians not to do anything in the Baltic states, as was claimed, then there would be some kind of activity here.”
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna also said earlier on Thursday that the country’s threat assessment had “not changed”, while stressing that the possibility of Russian provocations against NATO should be taken seriously.
“We remain vigilant, but Estonia’s threat assessment has not changed,” Tsahkna said.
Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow this week for undisclosed talks with Russian intelligence officials, but reportedly did not meet President Vladimir Putin. He did, however, meet Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
Ilves suggested that portraying the Baltic states as the focus of Ratcliffe’s visit could have been intended to divert attention from the real subject of the talks.
“I don’t think it’s a false flag, but rather just kind of make something up to divert attention from what is the real problem that the US faces right now,” he said.
‘‘That’s all spin’
The former Estonian president was equally sceptical about reports of an increased Russian military threat to the Baltic states.
Asked about a series of warnings in recent months that Moscow could escalate against Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, Ilves said: “I think that’s all spin.”
“Why would they do anything in the Baltic states at this time?”
Ilves argued that Russia has little strategic reason to risk a direct confrontation with NATO while it remains bogged down in its war against Ukraine.
“Why would you divert that and risk NATO, risk a war with NATO, when you have a stalemate in Ukraine?” he said.
If Moscow were looking to open another front, Ilves argued, Russia has several neighbours outside both NATO and the European Union where intervention would carry considerably less risk.
“There are so many countries that are on Russia’s border that are not in NATO, not in the EU,” he said, pointing to countries along Russia’s southern flank. “They can do all kinds of things, from Armenia to Tajikistan.”
Ilves also questioned why Russia would seek to test NATO militarily in the Baltics, where any attack could quickly escalate into a much wider conflict.
Asked whether Russia was deterred from confronting NATO in the region, Ilves said the question was not whether Moscow was afraid, but why it would take such a risk.
“Finland will immediately be pulled into it. If Finland does anything, Sweden will be in, Denmark will be in, Poland would be in,” he said.
Poland, in particular, he noted, has built one of Europe’s largest militaries and shares a border with Lithuania.
‘If you keep doing that, we will do X’
If Iran was indeed the subject of Ratcliffe’s talks, Ilves said he expected the CIA director to have delivered a warning backed by the threat of possible US action.
“I’m sure the message was something à la, ‘If you keep doing that, we will do X,’” he said.
“Ratcliffe is far too smart to say, ‘Oh, please, please, don’t do anything,’ or, ‘Please stop sending them satellite information.’”
“I’m sure they said something, ‘Well, if you keep doing this stuff, we will do X.’”
Ilves was more sceptical that Ukraine could form part of any potential bargain between Washington and Moscow over Russia’s involvement with Iran.
“Given how little the United States is actually doing in Ukraine at the moment, I don’t see it,” he said. “What are you going to say? ‘We’ll give you this if you give us Iran?’ What do they have to give in Ukraine?”
Ilves argued that Europe now carries much of the burden of supporting Ukraine, including paying for US-made weapons delivered to Kyiv.
“There hasn’t been any really substantial assistance to Ukraine since January of 2025. It’s all on the shoulders of the Europeans,” he said.
That leaves Washington with relatively little it could offer Moscow at Ukraine’s expense, he argued.
“I can’t really see much that the US has.”
Referring to Donald Trump’s own language about leverage in negotiations, Ilves added: “They don’t have the cards.”