Under pressure from member states, the European Commission is set to double down on tackling irregular arrivals. Three main options are on the table, and could be announced in the upcoming State of the Union speech.
The European Commission is expected to further harden its migration policy in the wake of the Ceuta crisis, with major changes set to be adopted in the coming months and potentially announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her State of the Union speech this week.
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The events of 30 July represented the largest influx of irregular migrants in recent years, with around 80,000 people entering the Spanish exclave in a single day, adding pressure to an already clear political initiative to tighten migration rules in EU-wide legislation.
Despite a steady decline in both irregular crossings and asylum applications in the EU since 2023, three new options are now on the table to strengthen the bloc’s external borders and increase the return of irregular migrants, according to several EU officials, diplomats and MEPs who spoke to Euronews.
“The images we have seen this summer are too disturbing for Europeans,” one EU official said. "Something major on migration has to be announced for sure."
The options are not mutually exclusive, and von der Leyen could ultimately decide to pursue more than one.
Temporary suspension of the right to asylum
The most disruptive proposal currently being discussed concerns a temporary suspension of asylum rules in cases of sudden, large-scale arrivals.
This would mean EU countries would no longer be obliged to process asylum claims from people who have entered irregularly in circumstances such as those seen in Ceuta.
“This idea is floating, and it would be a significant change,” another EU official told Euronews.
Under current rules, any foreign national present in an EU country has the right to apply for asylum, regardless of how they entered Europe, with their claim assessed on an individual basis.
The change is being pushed by some member states that have already adopted similar measures in recent years.
Greece suspended the processing of asylum claims for three months for migrants arriving by sea from Libya in July 2025, while Poland has had a similar ban in place for migrants crossing the border from Belarus since March 2025.
It would mark a further step in the tightening of asylum rights, after new rules that entered into force last June accelerated the asylum process through a “border procedure” for people arriving from countries considered safe.
More powers for Frontex
The European Commission’s desire to increase both the powers and the size of border agency Frontex is not new, but it has been given fresh impetus by what happened in Ceuta, according to an EU official.
Von der Leyen promised to triple the EU border agency’s staff in her re-election speech to the European Parliament in July 2024, bringing its personnel up to 30,000 officers. Frontex is also set to receive €12 billion under the EU’s next seven-year budget, doubling its previous allocation.
A wide-ranging reform of its mandate is expected by the end of the year, although the details remain unclear.
“Changes could include involvement in migrants’ returns, wider cooperation with third countries and a more active role in surveillance,” a Frontex official told Euronews, adding that a concrete proposal is likely to be put forward in October.
At this stage, even the agency’s board is not fully aware of the Commission’s plans, and Director Hans Leijtens has not been informed by von der Leyen's office about the content of the speech.
“The main question is whether Frontex will be able to take over from national authorities in crisis situations such as the one in Ceuta,” a senior MEP with knowledge of the matter told Euronews, expressing doubts that this could happen.
The agency could instead be given a role in deporting irregular migrants to third countries other than their country of origin, as provided for under the new Return Regulation, which is due to be formally adopted in the autumn.
EU money for return hubs
The deportation centres enabled by the regulation are another area in which the Commission could take a bold step.
The legislation gives member states broad autonomy in defining agreements with third countries that are set to host the so-called “return hubs”. Five EU member states are already in advanced talks with some partner countries, whose names have not been disclosed, with the aim of starting deportations by 2026.
The current rules do not foresee any financial involvement by the EU in these agreements. National governments are expected to fully finance the hubs and may also provide additional funding, commercial partnerships or other incentives to partner countries.
The major new development could be a promise to finance the hubs through the EU budget, with the Commission’s proposal allocating €74 billion to migration management for 2028-2034.
“The majority of member states have expressed interest in this kind of project. A common way of financing them in the future cannot be excluded,” an EU official told Euronews, referring to a joint letter dated in June in which 19 EU countries praised “innovative solutions” aimed at reducing irregular migration flows.
Beyond the support of most member states, all three proposals have the backing of the European People’s Party (EPP), which could facilitate their approval in the European Parliament.
As has happened with all migration-related files under the current legislation, the EPP could secure support for the changes with a majority drawing on support from right-wing conservative and far-right MEPs.
NGOs, civil society organisations and left-wing political groups, meanwhile, are expected to challenge whatever is announced in the State of the Union, having already strongly criticised the Commission’s recent migration policy guidelines.
“Pursuing in the same direction is a terrible mistake,” Greens MEP Mélissa Camara told Euronews.