The world's third-largest oil producer has the capacity to increase its output by almost 50 per cent, according to industry estimates.
The United Arab Emirates' decision to leave OPEC marks one of the most significant shifts in global energy politics in years, raising questions about oil supply, market stability and the pace of the energy transition.
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The country said its production policies will continue to be guided by “responsibility and market stability, taking into account global supply and demand".
It added that it will keep investing across oil, gas, renewables and low-carbon technologies as part of its long-term energy strategy.
The move also reflects broader tensions within the OPEC+ alliance, where production decisions have increasingly been shaped by cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The UAE has clashed with Saudi Arabia over quota allocations for several years.
Will the UAE’s exit from OPEC mean more fossil fuel?
The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC won’t necessarily have an immediate effect on oil supplies or prices, which are currently dominated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil supplies is transported.
Unlike most Gulf producers, the UAE can bypass the strait via its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, giving it a route to export even while the waterway remains closed.
The world’s third-largest oil producer, the country had been pumping out around 3.4 million barrels of crude a day just before the Iran war began on 28 February. This fell to 1.9 million barrels per day in March, with the country facing missile and drone attacks by Iran, a fellow OPEC member.
UAE authorities aim to expand capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, according to a Reuters report. It is one of OPEC’s few members with the ability to quickly increase production.
Burning one barrel of crude oil produces roughly 0.43 tonnes of CO2. Any sustained increase in production could therefore contribute to higher global emissions, depending on global demand and energy substitution.
The International Energy Agency previously warned in its 2021 net-zero roadmap that no new oil and gas fields should be pursued if the world is to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
What could this mean for global emissions?
Fossil fuels are the largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Last year, the Indicators of Global Climate Change report warned that limiting warming to 1.5°C could become virtually impossible within the next few years without rapid emissions reductions.
The UAE has sought to position itself as both a major oil producer and a growing player in clean energy. Its state-backed renewable energy company, Masdar, has invested in projects across more than 40 countries, including offshore wind developments in Europe.
The country said its decision to leave OPEC “reflects the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production.”
Whether its exit from OPEC ultimately leads to significantly higher production will depend on demand, market conditions, and the pace of the global energy transition – factors the UAE itself says will guide its decisions.
This article has been updated to include additional context.
