Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary expects Europe to have enough jet fuel through next summer, but warns that high prices will persist for another 12 to 18 months.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said on Thursday that he did not expect jet fuel shortages in Europe this winter or into summer 2027, even as the Iran war disrupts supply chains.
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"There is no question, I think, over availability of jet fuel in Europe this winter, or frankly into next summer either, unless there's some unforeseen event," O’Leary said at a press conference organised by Airlines for Europe (A4E) in Brussels.
His comments offer reassurance on supplies, but airlines and passengers still face persistently high fuel costs.
Euronews Business previously reported that lower seasonal demand from November and increased imports from Asia were expected to keep Europe supplied in the coming months. According to Kpler, nearly 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from Asia were scheduled to arrive over that period.
Those shipments could help prevent shortages, but are unlikely to bring much relief on prices.
“Jet fuel will likely be subject to higher prices, especially as it is deeply linked to the diesel market, which is becoming even tighter and experiencing record prices recently,” George Shaw, Kpler’s senior insight analyst for distillate markets, told Euronews on 23 September.
The European Commission also said on 8 September that increased EU refinery output and alternative imports were meeting European demand for jet fuel, although further disruption in the Middle East could tighten supplies.
Separately, the G7 agreed last Friday to speed up the release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves to ease pressure on energy markets. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency clarified that these barrels were part of the emergency stock release agreed in March.
Its members supported accelerating the remaining releases and prioritising diesel because of tight supplies, although the announcement did not specify a release of jet fuel.
Jet fuel prices double
Jet fuel prices have risen faster than crude prices since the war began, as attacks on refineries have disrupted production and widened the gap between the cost of crude and the price of the finished fuel.
According to the International Air Transport Association’s latest fuel price monitor, Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which includes several former Soviet republics, had the highest average jet fuel price of any region.
Prices averaged $195.95 a barrel in the week ending 2 October, more than double their level a year earlier. Although they fell 1% that week, the global jet fuel premium over crude remained roughly three times its year-earlier level.
"Historically, jet fuel was about somewhere between 10 per cent and 15 per cent more expensive than Brent crude. It's currently running at about 50 per cent more expensive," O’Leary said.
He expected that premium to persist for another 12 to 18 months, citing attacks on Russian and Middle Eastern refineries, along with constraints on tanker availability and refining capacity.
Ryanair said last month that it would reduce its winter flight schedule to limit its exposure to higher fuel costs, cutting its full-year passenger target to 214 million from 216 million.
