Ukraine has called on US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth to sign off on the delivery of crucial Patriot defence systems used to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. But NATO sources warn the situation is "unpredictable."
NATO allies are increasingly pessimistic that Ukraine will receive desperately needed US-made Patriot interceptor missiles before next week's US midterm elections, amid suspicions that President Donald Trump is using military aid to pressure Kyiv into concessions.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his country is still waiting for US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth to approve the transfer of additional interceptors, but NATO sources have told Euronews that the situation remains “unpredictable”, with allies unclear about whether the systems will be released and when they might arrive.
The uncertainty comes as Ukraine's air defences struggle to keep pace with Russian attacks, while US interceptor stocks are under growing pressure from the war against Iran.
Russian attacks outpace US production
Zelenskyy said Russia had launched more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and the surrounding region over the previous two weeks, highlighting the scale of Ukraine's air defence challenge.
The figures illustrate the scale of the challenge facing Ukraine as it seeks to replenish its air defence stocks.
According to separate Ukrainian estimates, the US produces around 60 to 65 Patriot interceptors a month — fewer than the number of ballistic missiles Russia has launched at Kyiv and the surrounding region in just two weeks.
That production must also meet demand from other US allies and partners worldwide, including countries in the Middle East and the Gulf.
Trump pressures Kyiv over to Russian oil strikes
The uncertainty over Patriot deliveries comes as Trump pressures Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian diesel refineries, arguing that the attacks are driving up global energy prices and hurting American and European consumers.
“We spoke to Mr Zelenskyy about it,” Trump said during a visit to his golf resort in Ireland in September.
“There are plenty of other targets. Don't hit diesel fuel. That's hurting the world,” he added.
The US-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route through which around a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies passed — triggered what the International Energy Agency (IEA) described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
With Trump's approval ratings at record lows ahead of the November 3rd midterms, some analysts believe his demands on Ukraine, including the withholding of Patriot interceptors, are intended to demonstrate action on soaring energy prices.
He recently waived punitive sanctions on Russian oil in an attempt to ease the cost to consumers by making more supply available.
Trump "wants to be seen to be doing something about the issues that are making voters unhappy, and one of them is the price of diesel, and that particularly affects farmers and red state voters in the Midwest and the United States," said former US Ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker.
He [Trump] thinks it'd be a "great story for him to be able to say, I've got Vladimir Putin giving us diesel, and I've got Zelensky to stop attacking the refineries, so 'I'm fighting for you'," said Volker who served until Trump's first term.
Trump "using leverage" against Ukraine
Asked whether there were any indications that the interceptors would be released to Ukraine soon, one NATO source said there was little clarity.
“It's so unpredictable,” the source said.
“Trump is using as much leverage as he has over Ukraine ahead of the midterms,” the source added.
The source suggested that Trump was also seeking to push Kyiv towards a peace deal involving territorial concessions.
Two sources said Washington was frustrated by the lack of progress towards ending Russia's war against Ukraine and wanted the conflict to end as soon as possible.
One source described the war as a “stone in the boot” for Washington, but said the US understood it needed to maintain its relationship with NATO allies, including in the context of the war in Iran.
The US is relying heavily on allies to launch strategic bombers some of which can carry two dozen 2,000lb bombs to attack Iran.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian civilians continue to die as Russia intensifies its missile campaign against the country.
NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte has urged allies to bilaterally send their own Patriot systems given the urgent needs of Ukraine.
Greece and Spain are two countries which hold considerable stockpiles of less technically advanced PAC-2 systems, NATO sources say. But neither Athens or Madrid have heeded the call of Rutte or the alliance to hand over the interceptors.
Ukraine faces interceptor shortage
Ukraine receives US-made weapons through NATO's Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) mechanism, under which allies fund purchases of American military equipment for transfer to Kyiv.
Volker says he thinks the delay may also be due to the US needing the supplies to resume heavy fighting against Iran.
"It seems to be the case that European countries have purchased Patriot missiles, the anti-missile missiles, and that they have not been delivered to Ukraine yet," he said.
"And there's no information or explanation from the Pentagon about this," Volker added. "Perhaps they intend to restart the war in Iran "and don't know how many Patriot missiles they're going to need for themselves."
Volker said the prospect of US weapons paid for by European taxpayers being withheld from Ukraine is particularly troubling for European allies, already unsettled by Washington's approach to Moscow.
Concerns have been compounded by restrictions affecting Ukraine's access to Starlink satellite internet services and by proposals floated during US-led peace talks that European governments unfreeze Russian assets.
Europeans have noted the overtures by US envoy Steve Witkoff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing him as a "humanitarian," as an indication that the US's allegiance is shifting in favour of Moscow.
In recent talks, the US had suggested unfreezing Russian assets mainly held in Europe and transferring them to the US for future use in Ukraine.
"Some of these proposals were very much one-sided in favour of Russia, including that Europe would unfreeze the frozen Russian assets," Volker said.
"Crazy stuff coming out of these proposals here," he said.
The uncertainty over deliveries also affects Ukraine's access to NASAMS, the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, a US-Norwegian air defence system designed to counter short- and medium-range aerial threats.
Global shortage with no quick fix
The Patriot system's PAC-3 interceptor is the most capable weapons available to Ukraine for countering ballistic missile threats, including by Russia in its attacks on Ukrainian cities.
A global shortage of PAC-3 interceptors, exacerbated by their use in the US war against Iran, is putting further pressure on supplies.
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has reported that US inventories of Patriot and other interceptors, alongside long-range strike munitions, had been depleted by about half during the conflict in Iran.
The depletion could undermine US military readiness in potential future conflicts, particularly with China, but also with Russia or North Korea, the Washington-based think tank warned.
Replenishing interceptor stocks is costly, technically complex, and time-consuming, meaning Ukraine's supply constraints are not ending any time soon.
Patriot interceptors cost over $4 million each, while manufacturing them can take close to two years, according to the estimates cited.
A tentative US commitment to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles under licence has also stalled, despite Trump announcing the initiative at the NATO summit in Ankara in July.
Meanwhile, Germany has been given the license to produce PAC-2 interceptor missiles - the less advanced, less expensive version of the PAC-3. Its production line is due to deliver the PAC-2 units by December 2026 or January 2027 at the earliest.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said his government has offered produce the PAC-3 in a bid to kick-start much-needed access.
With supplies stretched and no clear timeline for additional deliveries, Ukraine faces growing uncertainty over its ability to intercept Russia's continuing missile attacks.