There is a 70% chance that Ebola could reach South Sudan, according to a World Health Organization modelling study published on Thursday. Researchers said that preparing the country for a proper response is the “most urgent priority.”
With over 1,000 confirmed cases and over 260 deaths, the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has already spread to neighbouring Uganda. Now, the WHO estimates there is a high likelihood it could reach South Sudan, according to a modelling study published in The Lancet.
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The rare strain — Bundibugyo ebolavirus — has already reached Uganda, which has recorded 20 confirmed cases, two confirmed deaths, and one probable death.
South Sudan is considered the next most at risk, with researchers warning it has “some of the weakest public health infrastructure in the region,” citing gaps in case management, contact tracing, safe burial, and border surveillance.
“South Sudan must continue to reinforce infection prevention and control, rapid response capacity, and cross-border surveillance,” researchers said.
Other neighbouring countries, Rwanda and Burundi remain at comparatively low risk of getting Ebola cases.
“In the absence of a vaccine against the Bundibugyo strain … neighboring countries should implement public health measures now, such as border surveillance, contact tracing, and safe burial practices,” authors said, urging authorities to strengthen their response.
The researchers also estimated that the outbreak began spreading in communities in a region already destabilised by conflict, displacement and limited access to healthcare, and went undetected in early April 2026 — around six weeks before it was officially identified by WHO and declared a public health emergency.
